My Bitcoin Call for August 2026, and the 2026 Record
July closed at $62,818, up 7.3% on the month. That completes a seven for seven year, and it sets up the call for August.
The 2026 record, month by month
A forecast only means something in the context of every other forecast made, so here is all of 2026 rather than the convenient parts.
- January, called lower. Bitcoin fell 10.1%.
- February, called lower. Bitcoin fell 14.8%.
- March and April, called a trap rally. Bitcoin rose 13.9% across the two months.
- May and June, called lower. Bitcoin fell 23.3% across the two months.
- July, called a trap rally. Bitcoin rose 7.3%.
Seven months, seven calls. Bitcoin is down 28.2% year to date, from $87,496 at the end of December to $62,818 at the end of July.
The June and July calls are worth spelling out because they are the most recent. On June 1, with Bitcoin at $73,568, the call was lower. It reached $58,035 intramonth, a 21% decline. On July 1 the call was that a bounce was coming and that it would be a trap rather than a bottom. Bitcoin rallied from $57,735 to $66,921, a 16% move, then gave back 6% into the close and finished the month roughly 50% below its all time high.
Why the rallies keep being traps
The pattern across 2026 is not that Bitcoin only falls. It rallied twice, hard. The pattern is that both rallies failed to change anything structural.
The March to April rally ran 13.9% and was entirely erased by the end of June. The July rally ran 16% off the low and has already surrendered 6% of it. Neither took Bitcoin back above its long run trend, and neither ended the drawdown.
That is the difference between a bounce and a turn, and it is the single most useful distinction in a bear market.
The call for August
August is unlikely to be where this bear market ends. Three pieces of evidence support that.
1. August is Bitcoin's worst month
Ranking all twelve months by their typical year from 2010 to 2025, August comes last at -8.6%. September, which has the reputation, is only -2.4%. August is the only month on the calendar that loses more than 3% in a typical year, and it has been green just 5 times in 16 years.
2. The split is brutal
The month itself is not the cause. What matters is the condition Bitcoin walks into it carrying.
In a normal market the typical August loses 5.5%. In a bear market it loses 16%, and it has finished red in all four bear market Augusts on record, being 2011, 2014, 2018 and 2022. Same month, roughly three times the damage.
3. The whole summer splits the same way
Widening from one month to the full June through September window makes the gap larger, not smaller. A normal summer gains about 9%. A bear market summer loses about 38%.
And these two groups do not overlap at all. The worst normal summer on record was -6.1%. The best bear market summer was -11.8%. Across fifteen years, every single bear market summer was worse than every single normal one.
Where Bitcoin actually stands
Bitcoin enters August around $62,800, roughly 12% below its 200-day average and about 8% below its 200-week line, a level it has spent only around a fifth of its existence beneath.
Measured from the end of May, this summer is already down about 15% with two months left to run. This bear market is 9.8 months old, and the three before it took 12 to 13 months to reach a bottom.
What would make this call wrong
Four bear market Augusts is four data points, and seasonality describes what has usually happened rather than what must happen. August 2017 gained 65.6% while Bitcoin sat well below its previous high, which is exactly the kind of exception that keeps any of this from being a rule.
The call is also specifically about August, not about direction forever. A green August would not end the thesis. A monthly close back above the long run trend would, because that is the thing every rally this year has failed to do.
None of this is a prediction of a specific percentage. It is a statement about where the odds sit, which is the only honest thing seasonality can offer.
The full breakdown, including all fourteen summers tested individually and the one measurement almost nobody checks about where we are right now, is in the Summer Playbook.
Education, not financial advice.
Common questions
What is the Bitcoin call for August 2026?
August is unlikely to be where this bear market ends. August is Bitcoin's worst month historically at -8.6% in a typical year, it loses about 16% in bear markets specifically, and this bear market is only 9.8 months old against a historical 12 to 13 months to bottom.
How has Bitcoin performed in 2026?
Down 28.2% year to date. January -10.1%, February -14.8%, March +1.8%, April +11.9%, May -3.6%, June -20.4%, July +7.3%. Both rallies were given back or partially given back rather than ending the downtrend.
Is August bad for Bitcoin?
It is the worst month on the calendar by typical year, at -8.6% since 2010, and it has been green only 5 times in 16 years. But the condition matters more than the month. In a normal market August loses about 5.5% while in a bear market it loses about 16%.
What would prove this call wrong?
A monthly close back above the long run trend, which is the thing every rally in 2026 has failed to achieve. A single green August would not itself end the thesis, since the claim is about odds across a season rather than one month's direction.
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