Bitcoin indicator charts
Every signal people use to call tops and bottoms, plus the macro charts everyone argues about. Each one is live, each one is reproducible from public data, and each has its own page. Pick one to dig in.
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Cycle top and bottom signals
The on-chain and moving-average tools that have marked past cycle extremes. Read them together, never alone.
Realized price
The average price every coin last moved at, a fair proxy for what the typical holder paid. Every one of the last four cycle bottoms printed below it.
MVRV
Price divided by the market's average cost basis. Below 1 means the average holder is underwater.
Mayer Multiple
Price divided by its 200-day moving average. A simple, durable temperature gauge.
Puell Multiple
Daily miner income divided by its own one-year average. It reads the market through the miners.
NUPL
The share of Bitcoin's value that is sitting in unrealized profit. It maps the market's mood.
Pi Cycle Top
When the 111-day average crosses above twice the 350-day average, it has landed within days of past tops.
200-week MA
The average price over the last 200 weeks. Bitcoin has only closed below it at the deepest bear-market lows.
Power Law
On a log-log scale, Bitcoin's whole history lines up as a near-straight climb. This is that line, with a fair-value trend and the corridor price has lived inside.
Bottom Zone
Every Bitcoin cycle low has printed inside the same band near the bottom of the power law. This chart draws that zone, marks where the past lows landed, and adds the halving-clock window that says when the next one is due.
Rainbow chart
A colourful log-regression band chart, from fire-sale blue at the bottom to maximum-bubble red at the top.
AHR999
Two value checks in one number: price against its 200-day cost average, times price against a coin-age fair value.
2-year MA
Price against its 2-year moving average, and 5 times that line. A slow, wide band that has bracketed whole cycles.
Drawdown path
How far below the peak Bitcoin has fallen, aligned by days since each cycle top so you can compare this drawdown to past ones.
Cycle band
Every past bear market collapsed into one shaded band, with the current cycle traced inside it. Are we tracking the top, middle, or bottom of history?
Metcalfe value
Metcalfe's law says a network is worth its users squared. This tracks Bitcoin's price against that network value.
On-chain sentiment
Bitcoin's 30-day price change against its 30-day change in active addresses, with bands that mark when the market is running hot or cold.
Fear & Greed
A 0 to 100 sentiment gauge. Extreme fear has clustered around bottoms, extreme greed around tops.
Macro and cross-asset
Does Bitcoin follow the money supply, the business cycle, or the stock market? Two of these mostly say no.
ETF flows
Daily net flows into the US spot Bitcoin ETFs, green for an inflow day and red for an outflow, with the cumulative running total.
Miner cost
Roughly what it costs in electricity to mine one Bitcoin, estimated from network hashrate and daily issuance.
M2 money supply
The liquidity thesis. When central banks expand the money supply, the argument goes, Bitcoin rises.
PMI
If Bitcoin were a bet on economic growth, its cycles would track the PMI. They do not.
S&P 500
You often hear Bitcoin trades in lockstep with the stock market. Here is the year-by-year evidence.
Cycle timing
The metronome the whole cycle runs on.
Monthly returns
Every month of Bitcoin's history, color-coded, with the average and median for each one. The seasonality at a glance.
Price analogs
The 5 stretches of Bitcoin history whose shape most resembles the last year, and what came next.
Market psychology
The Wall Street Cheat Sheet of market emotions, mapped onto Bitcoin's 4-year cycle, with a marker for where the crowd sits right now.
Halving countdown
Every 210,000 blocks, roughly every four years, the new supply of Bitcoin is cut in half.
The charts are public. The read is the edge.
These indicators are free for everyone. Inside the community you get the daily desk note that ties them together, alerts when price enters a cycle window, and the Satoshi Clock running on your own charts.
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