The Satoshi Clock
Bitcoin's cycle runs on a clock, not a price. Every halving resets a roughly four-year rhythm, and the mature cycle tops have landed 525, 546, and 534 days after their halvings. This tracker shows where we are right now, and the buy and sell windows we registered in advance.
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Price, the power-law corridor, and the cycle windows
Bitcoin's price against its own causal power-law trend (log scale). The shaded bands are the historical and projected sell windows (525 to 546 days after each halving) and buy windows (364 to 406 days after each top). Dashed lines are the forward projection.
Hover for details. Drag across the chart to zoom into a span; Reset zoom to go back.
The cycle spiral
A second view of the same data. Each loop is one halving cycle. Tops cluster at the same clock angle (the orange wedge) while their distance from the trend shrinks every cycle. The amplitude is dying. The clock is not.
Hover any point for its date, cycle-clock day, and deviation. Use the time machine below to sweep through the cycles.
The pre-registered predictions
Stated before the outcome exists. This is the honest test of the clock, not the retrospective fit.
How to read this
Two numbers place Bitcoin in its cycle. The clock is the number of days since the last halving: where we are in the four-year revolution. The spring is how far price has stretched from its long-run power-law trend, measured in standard deviations. Plot the spring against the clock across every cycle and Bitcoin traces a damped spiral: the angle of the turns stays fixed while the radius shrinks each cycle.
That shrinking radius is why the famous price indicators (Pi Cycle, MVRV, the Mayer Multiple) keep going quiet. Their thresholds were calibrated on cycles with far bigger swings. The timing, measured on the halving schedule, has held. You can watch all of them live on the Bitcoin charts page.
The honest caveats
This is a regularity measured on three mature cycles, not a law and not financial advice. The turns are dated after the fact by a fixed mechanical rule, so the past clusters describe how surprising the pattern is, not a forecasting record. The cycle bottom is the weaker call (bear-market durations are partly intrinsic to any crash). The next top is the sharp test. The full method, every number, and the falsifiers are open-source in the research paper and replication code.
The clock is public. The live edge isn't.
This tracker is free. Inside the community you get the live layer: alerts the moment price enters a cycle window, the daily desk note with the full reasoning, and the Satoshi Clock indicator running on your own TradingView charts.
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