Is Bitcoin Really Correlated to the Stock Market?
After 2022, everyone learned the same lesson: Bitcoin is just a high-beta Nasdaq trade. When stocks fall, Bitcoin falls harder. The data from that year seemed to prove it. So the story stuck.
The problem is the data from every other year tells a different story. Is Bitcoin really correlated to the stock market? Sometimes, briefly. But the link is much weaker, and far less reliable, than almost everyone believes.
Where the 0.87 number comes from
If you have seen the claim that Bitcoin is 87% correlated to the S&P 500, here is what that number actually is. It was a brief peak reading from around the time the spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024. During that window, institutional money poured in, Bitcoin traded alongside other financial assets, and for a few weeks the two moved in lockstep.
That 0.87 was the ceiling, not the average. Pulling up any multi-year chart of how closely Bitcoin and the S&P 500 have moved together, you will see it swinging wildly from near-zero to high, and back again. The 5-year rolling average lands around 0.30. That is not a tight link. That is two things that sometimes rhyme and often do not.
What the long run looks like
From 2013 through 2019, the measured link between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 was close to zero. In 2018, a year when Bitcoin fell more than 80%, the measured number was 0.13. In May 2019, Bitcoin surged more than 60% while the S&P 500 dropped 6%. Both moves happened at the same time in opposite directions.
This is not ancient history. You can see the same pattern in 2023: Bitcoin rose roughly 160% that year, while the S&P 500 rose about 23%. Both were up, but Bitcoin moved at seven times the pace. And in the second quarter of 2026, U.S. stocks climbed 15% while Bitcoin fell 14%. Opposite directions, same quarter.
You can track the current live reading on the Bitcoin vs. S&P 500 chart, which updates automatically. What you will notice: the number changes constantly. A high reading in one month does not mean the same in the next.
The one year they really moved together
2022 was real, and it matters. Bitcoin fell roughly 77% that year. The S&P 500 fell about 25%. The Nasdaq fell about 33%. All of them dropped at the same time.
Here is why: the Federal Reserve raised interest rates from 0.25% to 4.5% in a single year. That was the fastest rate hike in 40 years. When the price of borrowing money jumps that fast, it pulls money out of every risk asset at once. Stocks, crypto, tech, real estate. Everything expensive got cheaper. Bitcoin was caught in the same tide.
That is a macro stress event, not evidence of a permanent structural link. The same logic that says “Bitcoin fell with stocks in 2022” also has to explain 2017, 2019, 2023, and the first half of 2026, when they went completely different directions.
What actually drives Bitcoin
Bitcoin has its own internal clock. Its supply is cut in half roughly every four years in an event called the halving. That supply reduction has historically triggered multi-year boom and bust cycles that have little to do with what the S&P 500 is doing.
In 2017, Bitcoin rose more than 1,200% while U.S. stocks gained about 19%. Both went up. But nobody would say those two things were moving together. Bitcoin was in the middle of its own cycle.
The macro environment matters at the extremes. A true global liquidity crisis pulls Bitcoin down with everything else. But in the middle-ground years, Bitcoin tends to follow its own cycle more than it follows earnings reports or Fed meetings. That is also why Bitcoin and the broader economy have historically shown almost no link: the economy moves on a business cycle that has nothing to do with halving schedules.
The honest version of the story
Bitcoin is not perfectly independent of the stock market. During real panic, real rate shocks, and real liquidity crunches, it can get sold alongside everything else. That happened in 2022, and it has happened in shorter windows since.
But the data on how closely Bitcoin and stocks move together, measured over years rather than weeks, does not support the claim that they are the same trade. The 5-year average sits around 0.30. Pre-2020, it was near zero. 2023 and 2026 both showed clear divergence. If you want to see what “highly correlated” actually looks like, compare the Nasdaq to the S&P 500. Then compare Bitcoin to either. They are different things.
If you want to explore what actually drives Bitcoin through its cycles, that is a better starting point than watching stocks.
Common questions
Is Bitcoin correlated to the stock market?
Sometimes, briefly. The 5-year average is about 0.30, which is a weak link. Before 2020, the measured number was close to zero for most of Bitcoin’s history.
Why did Bitcoin fall with stocks in 2022?
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates from 0.25% to 4.5% in one year, the fastest hike in 40 years. That pulled money out of every risk asset at once, including Bitcoin.
Is Bitcoin a good hedge against stocks?
Not reliably. Bitcoin behaves independently in most years, but during major macro stress events, both can fall at the same time.
What is the Bitcoin and stock market relationship right now?
It changes month to month. The live reading is on the Bitcoin vs. S&P 500 chart at bitcoin-daily.com, which updates automatically.
What is the average Bitcoin and stock market relationship over time?
The 5-year rolling average of how closely Bitcoin and the S&P 500 move together is roughly 0.30. Before 2020, across Bitcoin’s first decade, the average was near zero.
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Education, not financial advice. Trading involves real risk.