Guides › How to Test Any Market Prediction
How to Test Any Market Prediction
A simple method to check whether a bold market call is skill or luck.
Reading on a phone and the guide is not showing? Open the PDF directly.
Keep exploring Bitcoin Daily
Live Bitcoin charts
17 cycle and valuation indicators, updated daily.
The Satoshi Clock
Where Bitcoin sits in its halving cycle right now.
The blog
Plain-English market breakdowns and education.
More guides
Every Way to Own Bitcoin
Spot, ETFs, and self-custody, and the tradeoffs of each way to hold Bitcoin.
Quantum Computing and Your Bitcoin
Whether quantum computers are a real threat to Bitcoin, and the honest timeline.
How To Spot A Backfit Model
Four checks that separate a real edge from a curve drawn through history, worked on the most famous Bitcoin price model ever built. Stock-to-flow called $714,000 for this cycle and Bitcoin topped at $126,272. Every cycle top scored, the fitted versus live breakdown, and why a broken model does not always look broken.
Want the live layer?
These guides are free. Inside the community you get the daily desk note, alerts, and the tools running on your own charts.
Join the Community