The Mayer Multiple, Explained (Is Bitcoin Cheap?)
Every time Bitcoin drops 30% or more, the same question floods every group chat: is it cheap yet, or is it about to get cheaper? The Mayer Multiple won’t give you a perfect answer. Nothing will. But it will tell you, in one number, whether Bitcoin is trading at a discount, at fair value, or in full-blown mania territory. And the math behind it takes about five seconds to understand.
What is the Mayer Multiple?
Take Bitcoin’s price right now. Divide it by its 200 day moving average (the average closing price over the last 200 days). That’s it. That’s the whole formula.
The indicator was created by early Bitcoin investor Trace Mayer, and it does one thing well: it strips out the noise of daily candles and asks a simple question. Compared to where Bitcoin has been trading for the last seven months, is today’s price high or low?
A reading of exactly 1.0 means the price is sitting right on its long-term average. Below 1.0, the price has fallen beneath it. Above 1.0, the price is running ahead of it.
The two lines that matter
Historically, two thresholds have done the heavy lifting.
- Below 1.0 has marked nearly every major accumulation zone in Bitcoin’s history. When the Mayer Multiple drops under 1.0, it means the current price is below the average of the last 200 days of trading. In plain terms, Bitcoin is cheaper than its recent normal. Every bear market bottom since 2011 has printed a Mayer Multiple well under 1.0.
- Above 2.4 has signaled overheated, bubble-level prices. When the multiple crosses 2.4, Bitcoin is trading at more than double its long-term average. That has historically lined up with the blow-off tops that end bull runs. Every time the Mayer Multiple crossed above 2.4, a major correction followed.
Between those two lines is a wide middle ground. A reading between 1.0 and 1.5 is roughly fair value. Between 1.5 and 2.4 is a healthy bull market, running hot but not reckless.
Where the Mayer Multiple sits right now
As of September 10, 2026, Bitcoin is trading near $76,800, and its 200 day moving average sits around $70,000. That puts the Mayer Multiple at roughly 1.10. Price is just barely above the long-term average. Not cheap enough to flash the deep value signal, not hot enough to worry about a blow-off.
You can track this live on our Mayer Multiple chart, updated daily.
The shrinking peaks tell a bigger story
Here is the part most people miss. Every Bitcoin cycle, the Mayer Multiple peaks at a lower number than the cycle before.
- 2011 peak: roughly 3.5
- 2013 peak: roughly 3.2
- 2017 peak: roughly 2.7
- 2021 peak: roughly 2.0
- 2025 peak (October, near $126,000): roughly 1.2
Each top has been less extreme relative to the average. Bitcoin is still volatile, but the manias are getting quieter. The old 2.4 “danger zone” may never get hit again. That doesn’t mean the indicator is broken. It means Bitcoin is maturing. The 200 day average catches up faster now because the moves are less parabolic.
If you’ve read our breakdown of the MVRV ratio, this pattern will feel familiar. Multiple on-chain valuation tools are compressing cycle over cycle.
What the Mayer Multiple does NOT do
It does not predict direction. A Mayer Multiple of 0.8 does not mean the bottom is in. It means Bitcoin is trading 20% below its 200 day average, which is historically a cheap zone, but cheap can stay cheap for months. In 2022, the multiple spent nearly five months below 1.0.
It also does not account for on-chain data, miner costs, or any fundamental measure of value. It is purely a price-versus-its-own-history tool. Think of it like a thermometer: it tells you the temperature, not whether it’s about to rain.
Pairing it with other indicators, like the rainbow chart or the MVRV, gives you a wider picture. No single number tells the whole story.
The bottom line
The Mayer Multiple is one of the simplest tools in Bitcoin analysis. Price divided by its 200 day average. Below 1.0, historically cheap. Above 2.4, historically dangerous. Right now, at 1.10, Bitcoin is sitting just above its long-term average, neither a screaming buy nor a screaming sell by this measure alone.
Simple tools are easy to ignore. They are also the ones that have survived every cycle so far.
Common questions
What is a good Mayer Multiple for Bitcoin?
A Mayer Multiple below 1.0 has historically marked accumulation zones where Bitcoin was trading below its recent average. Between 1.0 and 1.5 is roughly fair value. Above 2.4 has signaled overheated, bubble-level prices.
What is the Mayer Multiple right now?
As of September 2026, the Mayer Multiple is approximately 1.10, meaning Bitcoin is trading just slightly above its 200 day moving average.
Who created the Mayer Multiple?
The Mayer Multiple was created by early Bitcoin investor Trace Mayer. It divides the current Bitcoin price by its 200 day moving average.
Has the Mayer Multiple ever been wrong?
The Mayer Multiple does not predict direction. A reading below 1.0 signals a historically cheap zone, but price can stay below that level for months, as it did for nearly five months in 2022.
Keep reading
- Bitcoin MVRV Ratio, Explained (What It Really Tells You)
- The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, Explained (And Whether It Works)
We break down the market like this every day, free on Instagram and YouTube, and in depth inside the community.
Education, not financial advice. Trading involves real risk.