Bitcoin MVRV Ratio, Explained (What Is a Good MVRV?)
The Bitcoin MVRV ratio is one of those charts that sounds complicated until you realize it only asks one question. Compared to what everyone paid for their Bitcoin, how much is the whole market up or down right now?
That ratio has touched below 1.0 at every major bear market bottom in Bitcoin’s history. And right now, as Bitcoin trades around $86,600 in October 2026, it sits at roughly 1.57.
Not a bottom. Not a top. Right in the middle.
What the bitcoin mvrv ratio actually measures
MVRV stands for Market Value to Realized Value. To understand it, you need two numbers.
The first number is Bitcoin’s market cap. Take the current price, multiply by the number of coins in circulation, and you have the market value. This is what most people mean when they say “Bitcoin’s market cap is a trillion dollars.”
The second number is the realized cap. This one is more interesting. Instead of using today’s price for every coin, it uses the price each coin was worth the last time it moved on the blockchain. If someone bought Bitcoin in 2020 and hasn’t touched it since, those coins count at the 2020 price. The realized cap is roughly what the whole market actually paid, in aggregate.
Divide the market cap by the realized cap and you have the bitcoin MVRV ratio.
A ratio of 1.0 means the market is exactly at breakeven. On average, every holder is at roughly the price they paid. Above 1.0, the market sits in net profit. Below 1.0, the market is underwater.
What a good Bitcoin MVRV ratio looks like at bottoms
Every major Bitcoin bear market bottom has the same thing in common. The MVRV ratio dropped below 1.0. Every single one.
In December 2018, MVRV hit about 0.85 near Bitcoin’s low around $3,200. In November 2022, it fell to roughly 0.72 as Bitcoin bottomed near $15,500. Before those, the deep crashes of 2014 and 2011 printed the same pattern. The ratio went below 1.0 as the majority of holders went underwater.
That doesn’t mean MVRV below 1.0 is a buy signal on its own. It means the market is in the kind of widespread pain that has historically come just before recoveries. Other signals tend to cluster there at the same time. The realized price, NUPL, fear readings. When they all agree, the signal is harder to argue with.
What MVRV looks like near tops
On the other side, when MVRV climbs above 3.5, the market has historically entered the zone where major tops have formed. At the peak in December 2017, MVRV reached roughly 4.0. In November 2021, it hit about 3.7 before Bitcoin rolled over from its high near $69,000.
Past 3.5, the average holder is sitting on a very large unrealized profit. History says that is when people sell. Not all at once, not tomorrow, but the pressure builds. The 2025 cycle was an exception. Bitcoin topped at a much lower MVRV than prior peaks, which is part of why the top came without the euphoria signals many people were waiting for.
This is why watching MVRV over time matters more than checking it once. The trend and the level together are more useful than either one alone.
Where Bitcoin MVRV sits right now
As of October 2026, with Bitcoin trading around $86,600, the MVRV ratio sits at approximately 1.57. That puts it firmly in the middle ground. Above breakeven. Nowhere near the peak readings that have historically lined up with major crashes. Still well above the low readings that have marked past bottoms.
You can follow the live reading on the Bitcoin MVRV chart, updated with on-chain data.
A 1.57 reading says the average holder is in profit, but not by a reckless margin. It is not a screaming buy and it is not a screaming sell. It is a number to file away so you know what it looks like when conditions change.
The honest limit of the MVRV ratio
MVRV tells you the market’s aggregate profit or loss. It does not tell you when a bottom will form, when a top will happen, or whether the current reading will stay here for a week or a year. The 2022 bear market had MVRV below 1.0 for months before the recovery started. The signal confirmed the environment. It did not predict the date.
Use it the way you would use a thermometer. It tells you how hot or cold the room is. That is genuinely useful. But it does not tell you what the weather will be tomorrow.
For a fuller picture, the MVRV ratio works best alongside the realized price and NUPL. Each one looks at the same on-chain cost basis from a slightly different angle. When several of them point the same direction, that is when the read carries weight.
Common questions
What is the Bitcoin MVRV ratio?
MVRV stands for Market Value to Realized Value. It divides Bitcoin's total market cap by the realized cap, which is roughly what every holder actually paid for their coins on average. A reading above 1.0 means the market is in net profit; below 1.0 means the average holder is underwater.
What is a good MVRV ratio for Bitcoin?
There is no single perfect number, but below 1.0 has marked every major bear market bottom since 2011, and above 3.5 has historically lined up with cycle tops. The current reading of approximately 1.57 is in the mid-range, neither bottom territory nor top territory.
What does an MVRV ratio below 1 mean for Bitcoin?
It means the average holder is underwater on their investment. That level of widespread loss has preceded every major Bitcoin recovery in history. The 2018 bottom printed at roughly 0.85 and the 2022 bottom at roughly 0.72.
What was the Bitcoin MVRV ratio at the 2022 bottom?
MVRV reached approximately 0.72 near Bitcoin's low of around $15,500 in November 2022. That was the deepest reading since the 2018 bear market, when it touched 0.85.
How is MVRV different from NUPL?
MVRV is a ratio of market cap to realized cap. NUPL takes a similar idea and converts it into a scale from roughly negative 1 to positive 1 that maps onto named market moods from capitulation to euphoria. They use the same underlying data and tend to agree at major turning points.
Keep reading
- Bitcoin Realized Price, Explained (The Market's True Cost Basis)
- Bitcoin NUPL Explained: Profit or Pain?
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Education, not financial advice. Trading involves real risk.