Bitcoin MVRV Ratio (Live Chart)
Price divided by the market's average cost basis. Below 1 means the average holder is underwater.
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MVRV on the left axis with BTC price overlaid on the right (log). The dashed lines mark the cost basis (1.0) and the frothy zone.
Drag across the chart to zoom into any span. Reset zoom to go back.
MVRV, short for market value to realized value, is simply the current market capitalisation divided by the realized capitalisation. In plain terms it compares what Bitcoin is worth today to what the market as a whole paid for its coins. A reading of 1 means the two are equal, so the average holder is exactly break-even.
Below 1 the market is underwater, a condition that has lined up with major bottoms in every past cycle. Very high readings have marked euphoric tops, though the level that counts as high keeps falling as each cycle swings less violently than the last. That decay is why a single fixed MVRV threshold is less reliable than it used to be.
Use MVRV as a temperature gauge for how stretched valuation is, not as a precise buy or sell trigger.
The charts are public. The read is the edge.
These indicators are free for everyone. Inside the community you get the daily desk note that ties them together, alerts when price enters a cycle window, and the Satoshi Clock running on your own charts.
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