What Is a Good MVRV Ratio for Bitcoin?
Everyone who discovers the MVRV ratio asks the same question: what number should I actually care about? The explainer posts all say above 1 means profit, below 1 means pain, and then stop. That is technically true, but it is like saying a thermometer tells you if it is hot or cold. You already knew that. What you actually want is the number where you grab a jacket, and the number where you start worrying about heatstroke.
So here are the concrete zones. No hand-waving. Just the bands that have shown up at every major turning point in Bitcoin’s fifteen-year history, and where the ratio sits right now.
Quick recap: what the MVRV ratio measures
MVRV compares Bitcoin’s current price to the average price every holder actually paid. If the ratio is 2, the average holder is sitting on a 100% gain. If it is 0.8, the average holder is 20% underwater. That is the whole idea. If you want the full breakdown, we wrote a deeper piece on how the Bitcoin MVRV ratio works.
What is a good MVRV ratio? The four zones
Think of the MVRV chart as four colored bands, each telling you something different about the crowd’s mood and the risk you are taking.
- Below 1.0: deep pain. The average Bitcoin holder is underwater. This has only happened at the worst crashes in Bitcoin’s history. In December 2018 it hit about 0.85. In November 2022, after the FTX collapse, it dropped to roughly 0.72. Both readings came within days of the absolute cycle low. Every time the ratio has dipped below 1, it turned out to be one of the best long-term buying windows ever recorded.
- 1.0 to 1.5: discount territory. The average holder is barely in profit, or just above breakeven. Historically, this zone has appeared during late-stage bear markets and early recoveries. It is not the screaming bottom, but it is well below the long-run average. As of late July 2026, the MVRV ratio sits near 1.2, which puts the market squarely in this band.
- 1.5 to 3.0: normal range. Bitcoin spends most of its life here. The average holder is sitting on a comfortable gain, but not enough to trigger a wave of profit-taking. This zone does not give you a directional edge on its own. Think of it as fair weather.
- Above 3.0: overheated. Nearly everyone is deep in profit, and the temptation to sell becomes enormous. The ratio hit roughly 4.0 at the December 2017 top and about 3.7 at the November 2021 top. Both times, the market rolled over within weeks. When MVRV climbs above 3, the crowd has historically gotten greedy enough to create its own ceiling.
Where Bitcoin’s MVRV sits right now
With Bitcoin near $63,400 and the realized price (the average cost everyone paid) estimated around $53,000, the MVRV ratio is roughly 1.2. That places it in the lower half of the discount zone. The average holder is barely in the green. For context, the ratio was near 2.5 when Bitcoin was trading above $100,000 in late 2024. The entire move from the January 2025 all-time high to today has been a slow grind from the normal band down into discount territory.
You can track the live reading on our MVRV chart page, which updates daily.
The honest limits
MVRV tells you whether the crowd is stressed or euphoric. It does not tell you when the turn happens. The ratio sat below 1 for weeks during the 2018 bear before the final bottom arrived. It sat above 3 for over a month in early 2021 before the May crash. Treating any single reading as a trigger is a recipe for being early, and being early in a crash is indistinguishable from being wrong, at least until it is over.
The better way to use it: combine MVRV with other signals. When the ratio drops below 1 and the Fear and Greed Index hits extreme fear, and realized price is tagging the spot price, the cluster of evidence gets hard to ignore. No single chart calls the bottom. Several charts saying the same thing at the same time is a different story.
The bottom line
A good MVRV ratio for Bitcoin depends entirely on what you are trying to do. If you are looking for long-term value, the historical sweet spot is anything below 1.5, and below 1.0 has been a generational window every time it has appeared. If you are looking for warning signs, above 3.0 has preceded every major top in Bitcoin’s history. Right now, at roughly 1.2, the market is closer to pain than to euphoria. That does not guarantee a bottom, but every prior bottom started from exactly this kind of reading.
Common questions
What is a good MVRV ratio to buy Bitcoin?
Historically, MVRV below 1.0 has marked every major cycle bottom and produced the best long-term returns. Readings between 1.0 and 1.5 have also been solid buying zones during late bear markets.
What MVRV ratio signals a Bitcoin top?
Readings above 3.0 have appeared near every major cycle peak. The December 2017 top was roughly 4.0 and the November 2021 top was about 3.7.
What is the Bitcoin MVRV ratio right now?
As of late July 2026, Bitcoin's MVRV ratio is approximately 1.2, placing it in the discount zone just above breakeven for the average holder.
Can MVRV predict the exact Bitcoin bottom?
No. MVRV shows whether the market is overheated or in pain, but it can stay at extreme levels for weeks or months before the price turns. It works best as part of a cluster of signals, not as a standalone trigger.
What is Bitcoin realized price?
Realized price is the average price every current Bitcoin holder actually paid, calculated by looking at the price the last time each coin moved on the blockchain. It is the denominator in the MVRV ratio.
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Education, not financial advice. Trading involves real risk.