Bitcoin Drawdown From the Cycle Top (Live)
How far below the peak Bitcoin has fallen, aligned by days since each cycle top so you can compare this drawdown to past ones.
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Percent below the cycle peak on the vertical axis, days since that cycle's top on the horizontal. One line per cycle, this cycle in orange.
Drag across the chart to zoom into any span. Reset zoom to go back.
Each line starts at its cycle's top (0 days, 0 percent) and tracks the running drawdown from that peak. The 2025 line is still in progress.
Every Bitcoin bear market looks scary in isolation. Lining them up tells a calmer story. This chart pins each cycle's top to the same starting point, day zero, and then tracks how far price fell below that peak as the days ticked by. Laid on top of each other, the paths let you compare the current drawdown to history at the same point in the journey.
Two things tend to stand out. The depth of the drawdowns has been shrinking cycle over cycle, part of the same maturation that is quieting the old top signals. And the timing of the eventual low has clustered, which is why comparing where we are now against where past cycles bottomed is more useful than staring at the price alone.
Read the orange line against the faded ones. If this cycle is tracking shallower than the last, that is the amplitude compression showing up in real time. If it is tracking the timing of past bottoms, that is the clock doing its work.
The charts are public. The read is the edge.
These indicators are free for everyone. Inside the community you get the daily desk note that ties them together, alerts when price enters a cycle window, and the Satoshi Clock running on your own charts.
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