Bitcoin Realized Price: what the average holder paid
The average price every coin last moved at, a fair proxy for what the typical holder paid. Every one of the last four cycle bottoms printed below it.
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Price against realized price on a log scale. When price is below the line, the average holder is underwater.
Drag across the chart to zoom into any span. Reset zoom to go back.
The undercut shrinks every cycle (58, 44, 31, 25 percent below the line), the same maturation you see across Bitcoin. The honest caveat is that price has spent long stretches below the line without it being the exact bottom, so it marks a value zone, not a day.
Realized price is one of the most useful on-chain valuation lines because it is grounded in real behaviour rather than a formula. Instead of the last traded price, it values every coin at the price it last moved on-chain, then averages across the whole supply. That gives you an estimate of the aggregate cost basis of the market, roughly what the average holder paid.
The reason traders watch it is simple. When the live price falls below realized price, the average participant is holding at a loss. Historically that state of collective pain has clustered around the bottoms of bear markets. Every one of the last four cycle lows closed below the line, and the depth of the undercut has shrunk each cycle as Bitcoin has matured.
It is a zone, not a timer. Price can sit below realized price for months, as it did through much of 2015, without marking the exact low. Read it alongside the other signals on this page rather than on its own.
The charts are public. The read is the edge.
These indicators are free for everyone. Inside the community you get the daily desk note that ties them together, alerts when price enters a cycle window, and the Satoshi Clock running on your own charts.
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