Bitcoin Price Analogs (Live)
The 5 stretches of Bitcoin history whose shape most resembles the last year, and what came next.
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The bold blue line is the current cycle, z-normalized so only the shape matters. The colored lines are the closest historical matches. The dashed part of each is what happened over the next 180 days.
Drag across the chart to zoom. Switch the asset above.
Matches are found by z-normalized shape distance over Bitcoin's own history, which removes the size of each move so only the pattern is compared. Each forward path is a single past episode, not a probability. Switch to ETH with the toggle above the chart.
History does not repeat, but it often rhymes. This tool takes the last 360 days of Bitcoin's price and searches its entire history for the stretches that traced the most similar shape. The five closest matches are drawn on top of the current path, and then, in dashed lines, what each one did over the following 180 days.
Everything is z-normalized, which is a fancy way of saying the size of each move is stripped out so only the shape is compared. A gentle 20 percent drift and a violent 200 percent run can have the same shape, and this lines them up so you can see the resemblance. The distance number next to each match is how close the fit is, smaller being tighter.
Read the dashed lines as a spread of possibilities, not a prediction. Each one is a single thing that happened once in the past after a similar-looking year. Sometimes they cluster and tell a clear story, sometimes they scatter in every direction, and the scatter itself is the useful signal about how uncertain the road ahead is.
The charts are public. The read is the edge.
These indicators are free for everyone. Inside the community you get the daily desk note that ties them together, alerts when price enters a cycle window, and the Satoshi Clock running on your own charts.
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