Bitcoin vs PMI: the business cycle test (Live)
If Bitcoin were a bet on economic growth, its cycles would track the PMI. They do not.
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Two panels on one shared timeline. Top: Bitcoin price (log) with cycle tops (red), bottoms (green) and the halvings (dashed). Bottom: the ISM Manufacturing PMI, green above 50 (economy expanding), red below (shrinking).
Drag across the chart to zoom into any span. Reset zoom to go back.
The PMI, or Purchasing Managers Index, is one of the cleanest reads on the industrial economy. Above 50 signals expansion, below 50 signals contraction. If Bitcoin were fundamentally a bet on the business cycle, its four-year swings would line up with it.
They do not. The correlation between monthly moves is effectively zero, and it flips sign constantly. Bitcoin bottomed in 2018 during a PMI expansion and ran an entire bull market through the long 2022 to 2024 contraction. The halving schedule timed those cycles far better than the economy did.
This is one of the charts that supports the whole premise of this site. Bitcoin runs on its own clock, not on the macro calendar most assets follow.
The charts are public. The read is the edge.
These indicators are free for everyone. Inside the community you get the daily desk note that ties them together, alerts when price enters a cycle window, and the Satoshi Clock running on your own charts.
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