Bitcoin Cycle Band: This Bear vs the Historical Range (Live)
Every past bear market collapsed into one shaded band, with the current cycle traced inside it. Are we tracking the top, middle, or bottom of history?
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Price as a multiple of the cycle top, aligned by days since the top. The shaded band is the full range of the 2013, 2017 and 2021 bears, the dashed line is their average, and the orange line is this cycle.
Drag across the chart to zoom into any span. Reset zoom to go back.
The band is only three past cycles, so treat the edges as a rough envelope, not a hard floor or ceiling. It shows how this bear compares in shape, not where the exact bottom will land.
Every Bitcoin bear market feels unprecedented while you are living through it. Stacking them on top of each other tells a calmer story. This chart takes the three completed post-top bears (2013, 2017 and 2021), lines them up at their peak, and measures each one as a fraction of its own top. Collapse those three lines into the space between the highest and the lowest at each point and you get a shaded band: the historical range of where Bitcoin has traded at every stage of a bear.
The orange line is the current cycle, measured the same way and dropped inside the band. When it rides the top edge, this bear is shallower than history. When it sinks toward the bottom edge, it is tracking the worst of the past. The dashed line through the middle is the average bear, a rough base case for how a normal cycle has behaved.
So far this cycle has held above the historical range, part of the same maturation you see across these charts: the swings are getting smaller as Bitcoin grows up. The honest caveat is that three cycles is a small sample, so read the band as a shape guide, not a guarantee. It tells you whether this bear is behaving normally, not the day it ends.
The charts are public. The read is the edge.
These indicators are free for everyone. Inside the community you get the daily desk note that ties them together, alerts when price enters a cycle window, and the Satoshi Clock running on your own charts.
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