Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score (Live Chart)
How far market value has stretched above the market's cost basis, measured in standard deviations. One of the cleaner top and bottom gauges.
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MVRV Z-Score on the left axis with BTC price overlaid on the right (log). The bands mark the historic top zone and bottom zone.
Drag across the chart to zoom into any span. Reset zoom to go back.
The Z-Score is descriptive, not a timer. The exact level that counts as a top has drifted lower each cycle as Bitcoin has matured, so read the zones as context rather than as a fixed trigger.
The MVRV Z-Score takes the gap between Bitcoin's market value and its realized value, what the market as a whole paid for its coins, and divides that gap by how volatile the market value has been. The result is a score in standard deviations that flattens out the enormous difference in scale between early Bitcoin and today.
It has a strong historical record of lighting up at the extremes. Very high readings, up around seven and above, have lined up with the blow-off tops of past cycles, while readings near or below zero have coincided with the deepest bear-market bottoms when the average holder was underwater.
As with every cycle gauge on this site, the thresholds soften as Bitcoin matures and its swings compress. Treat the top and bottom zones as pressure readings, not as a precise buy or sell button, and confirm them against the other signals here.
The charts are public. The read is the edge.
These indicators are free for everyone. Inside the community you get the daily desk note that ties them together, alerts when price enters a cycle window, and the Satoshi Clock running on your own charts.
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