Bitcoin Halving Cycle Comparison (Live)
Every halving cycle's price path, lined up from its halving day, with the exact correlation of the current cycle to each past cycle.
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Return since each halving on a log scale, one line per cycle, against days since the halving. The cards show the current cycle's correlation to each past cycle.
Each line is one halving cycle, anchored at its halving. The dots mark each cycle top. Drag across the chart to zoom.
Correlation describes how similar the paths have been so far, not what happens next. Every cycle trends up, so the numbers are broadly high. The useful parts are which cycle ranks closest, and that each cycle's returns keep shrinking.
This chart lines up all four of Bitcoin's halving cycles at their starting gun. Day zero is each halving, and every line shows how many times your money would have grown, or shrunk, from the price on that day. Putting them on the same axis lets you see how the current cycle is unfolding against the ones before it.
The first thing that jumps out is the shrinking size of each cycle. The 2012 cycle ran up roughly ninety times over from its halving, 2016 around thirty, 2020 about eight, and the current one has been far more muted. That steady compression is the same maturation story that runs through these charts. As Bitcoin grows into a multi-trillion-dollar asset, it simply takes more money to move it the same percentage.
The correlation cards put an exact number on how closely the current cycle's path matches each past one. Because every cycle broadly rises, the figures tend to be high, so the honest signal is in the ranking rather than the raw value. The cycle at the top is the closest historical rhyme for how price has moved this time, but it is a description of the past, not a promise about the future.
The charts are public. The read is the edge.
These indicators are free for everyone. Inside the community you get the daily desk note that ties them together, alerts when price enters a cycle window, and the Satoshi Clock running on your own charts.
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