Altseason Compass (Live)
A live 0 to 100 read of whether capital favors Bitcoin or altcoins right now, built to beat the lagging altcoin season index at its own job.
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Top panel: the total altcoin market cap (TOTAL3, everything except Bitcoin and Ethereum) on a log scale. Bottom panel: the Altseason Compass score from 0 to 100, the line green in the alt-season zone (above 70) and red in the bitcoin-season zone (below 30).
Drag across the chart to zoom into any span. Reset zoom to go back.
The Compass weighs the market forces that decide whether money favors Bitcoin or altcoins into one live score. We keep the exact recipe proprietary, but the result is public. In a six-year forward test it read what altcoins did next better than the standard altcoin season index, which lands on a coin flip. It is a higher-conviction read of the regime you are in right now, not a predictor of the next altcoin season, if we even get another one.
Altcoin season is really one question. Is money staying with Bitcoin, or is it spilling out into the rest of the market. The Altseason Compass reads the forces that answer that question and folds them into a single score from 0 to 100. Low means Bitcoin is in control. High means capital is rotating into altcoins. The exact recipe is ours, but the score updates live and anyone can watch it move.
We built it because the tool everyone already uses, the Altcoin Season Index, is a rear-view mirror. It scores how alts did over the last 90 days, so by the time it flashes green the move is mostly over. We put both through the same forward test across six years. When the index said altcoin season, altcoins beat Bitcoin over the next month only about half the time, a coin flip. The Compass did meaningfully better. That does not make it a crystal ball, and a true altcoin season may not return the way it used to, but as a live read of where things stand it beats the standard the whole market leans on.
Read it as a fast, honest gauge of whether the wind is at altcoins' back or in their face right now. It tracks the regime you are already in rather than forecasting the next one, and it is one input, not the whole picture. Use it alongside the other signals on this site.
The charts are public. The read is the edge.
These indicators are free for everyone. Inside the community you get the daily desk note that ties them together, alerts when price enters a cycle window, and the Satoshi Clock running on your own charts.
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